Abstract
As American homes shift from gas furnaces to heat pumps, the load that used to burn gas now arrives at the residential transformer — in winter, at the coldest hours, on every house at once. Shipment data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute show heat pumps have outsold gas furnaces every year since 2022, and the gap keeps widening — heat pumps led by about 32% in 2024, the largest margin on record,¹ with annual U.S. shipments now running near 3.5 to 4 million units.²
